Questions and Scenarios; What You Might See at the Rebellion

Official photographic portrait of US President...

Official photographic portrait of US President Barack Obama (born 4 August 1961; assumed office 20 January 2009) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Yesterday we talked about the clear justification the Founders give us for resisting tyranny. That article is here. That’s all well and good but, a lot of justified people have died all over the world trying to sustain their right, many of them in vain. I’m willing to discuss these questions within reason, but communications security rules also have some place in this discussion.

There are a lot of questions. Last night Maggie from Maggie’s Notebook  posted this comment:

NEO, you mentioned the danger of how quickly this is happening. For some time I’ve thought about what the flash point will be. Will it be when a bill is passed? Will it be when you are forced to go to your individual or your city’s police department to register your gun, or hand over in the beginning, only certain types of guns – and will violence break out in some city somewhere that leads the rest of the nation to revolt – too late, after it’s already law? Will we gather on the steps of Congress as this legislation makes it’s way to a vote? We did that by the thousands forObamaCare and it did nothing. Marching on the Capitol requires millions of bodies.

I fear a creep. One state establishes a law now, and others follow at other times, separate from each other. Local law enforcement will handle things in differing ways. One terrible step at a time.

I wonder if this is some way we can fight before a violent flash point happens between. Whatever the law looks like, we fully understand now that contacting Congress is useless, promising to vote them out is useless – because anti-Second Amendment creatures rule the country.

Over my cold dead body? How does that fight get underway?

I’ve been thinking about the flash point as well. When is it? When the first state law is passed, when there are raids, does it matter if the law is passed? All are valid questions. Start too soon and fail to get support because not enough believe, wait too long and have individual groups facing organized troops and losing in detail. What about communications, secure or otherwise, short and long range. Will the internet work? Is shutting the internet off the signal to revolt? That makes some sense.

I’m with Maggie, I too fear a creep.

It could look like Illinois passing a draconian bill and getting some compliance heralded loudly in the media, and then New York following with similar results, and soon we’re all in trouble, no muss no fuss.

It could also be Illinois passing a law, deeming that there is a lack of compliance and launching well publicized raids, and causing casualties on both sides, scaring potential rebels.

It could be a national law, there are reports kicking around, I don’t find them overly credible but they’re out there, that the administration has teams already in place reporting to TSA to carry out raids.

If that’s true, the question becomes, how well trained are the TSA people, what we see in airports seem to be mostly bullies and that won’t hack this scenario. The opposition will in some fairly large plurality have full on military training, and some may be active duty or national Guard, and perhaps with access to weapons as well. The other thing I would remind those TSA operators, they are very likely to play the role of the SA in Nazi Germany, help in the overthrow and then be killed by more ruthless people still. They need to keep looking over their shoulders as well. And don’t forget the drones. I’ve seen reports that Obama treats the tapes of drone strikes almost like pornography. see here and here. They’re not new but, they are very interesting.

But the $64 dollar question is, “What will the military, especially the Army, do?” I can make a case that they will stand with the people and the population, I can also make a case that they stand aside citing Posse Commitatus, and I can make a case, although its harder that they will support the administration. That case is harder because we have all seen the disdain of the politicians for the military, and we have also seen that it is returned. Again that’s all well and good, up to what O-6 Colonel level but, what of flag rank who are very often political more than troop oriented and does it matter.

OK, suppose we somehow get the Revolution 2.0 off the ground, how does it go, Maybe like this:

When I wrote What you’ll seen in the rebellion, I had no idea how widely read an article warning of the dangers of second Revolutionary War could become. It has been “shared” thousands of times in social media, and new readers and comments are pouring in constantly.

Since the time it was written, state legislators in Illinois and New York have formally pressed for crushing gun control measures that would outlaw standard-capacity magazines, all semi-automatic handguns, rifles, and pistols, and even pump shotguns. There would be no grandfathering in these proposals, and no inheritance rights. A complete confiscation of these arms, “liberty’s teeth” as other have termed them, are the goal of these totalitarian governments. Legislators in other states are plotting similar measures.

In Washington, DC, federal Democrats—goaded by figures in the poli-media calling for the murders of gun owners and politicians that would oppose their “common sense” statism—have pushed for a similar raft of legislation, supporting the criminalization and confiscation of the most common firearms in the United States and various accessories. The Vice President of the United States has signaled to the mayor of Boston (how historically apt) that the White House itself may attempt to circumvent Congress and attempt to outlaw these common firearms with an executive order.

The people have responded to these threats by not merely buying up the firearms, magazines, and ammunition that might be affected by these proposed bans as they did in 1993/94 before the Clinton-era ban was pushed through, but by purchasing nearly every firearm of military utility of the past 100+ years. Ruger 10/22s and other common .22LR rifles have doubled in price when they can be found at all. Inexpensive Mosin-Nagants, originally designed in 1891 and typically found by the dozen in your average neighborhoodgun shops, are nowhere to be found, and their ammunition is gone as well. U.S. citizens are preparing for war against their government by the millions. Americans aren’t “going Galt” in response to the push by would-be elites to surging statism. We’re on the cusp ofgoing Häyhä.

Continue reading What you’ll see in the rebellion: A nation of Sarajevos « Bob Owens.

Or this:

Let me explain, gun grabbers, how your confiscatory fantasy plays out. Let us imagine for a moment that a sweeping gun control bill similar to the one currently suggested is passed by the House and Senate, and signed into law by a contemptuous President.

Perhaps 50-100 million firearms currently owned by law-abiding citizens will become contraband with the stroke of a pen. Citizens will either register their firearms, or turn them in to agents of the federal government, or risk becoming criminals themselves. Faced with this choice, millions will indeed register their arms. Perhaps as many will claim they’ve sold their arms, or had them stolen. Suppose that as many as 200-250 million weapons of other types will go unregistered.

Tens of millions of Americans will refuse to comply with an order that is clearly a violation of the explicit intent of the Second Amendment. Among the most ardent opposing these measures will be military veterans, active duty servicemen, and local law enforcement officers. Many of these individuals will refuse to carry out what they view as Constitutionally illegal orders. Perhaps 40-50 million citizens will view such a law as treason. Perhaps ten percent of those, 4-5 million, would support a rebellion in some way, and maybe 40,000-100,000 Americans will form small independently-functioning active resistance cells, or become lone-wolves.

They will be leaderless, stateless, difficult to track, and considering the number of military veterans that would likely be among their number, extremely skilled at sabotage, assassination, and ambush.

After a number of carefully-planned, highly-publicized, and successful raids by thegovernment, one or more will invariably end “badly.” Whether innocents are gunned down, a city block is burned to ash, or especially fierce resistance leads to a disastrously failed raid doesn’t particularly matter. What matters is that when illusion of the government’s invincibility and infallibility is broken, the hunters will become the hunted.

Unnamed citizens and federal agents will be the first to die, and they will die by the dozens and maybe hundreds,  but famous politicians will soon join them in a spate of revenge killings, many of which will go unsolved.

Ironically, while the gun grab was intended to keep citizens from preserving their liberties with medium-powered weapons, it completely ignored the longer-ranged rifles perfect for shooting at ranges far beyond what a security detail can protect, and suppressed .22LR weapons proven deadly in urban sniping in Europe and Asia.

Continue reading What you’ll see in the rebellion

Or even this:

If we assume a clean start without too many casualties, there now exists partisan bands all over the country, like Bob talked about above, what will they be doing? How about attacking infrastructure? Railroads, power transmission, water, interstate transportation, and pipelines  are all vulnerable. No city in America has even a weeks supply of food available and we saw in Katrina and Sandy what urban centers look like without food and electricity. This does a couple of things, it focuses the government away from the partisans and it devours resources like nothing else while tying the military to a civil relief role, and fixed positions which makes them vulnerable as well. if say, this was happening in the ten (or 50 for that matter) largest cities what is the government going to do? I don’t know and I bet they don’t either. The urban inhabitants are their constituents after all, think they’ll let them starve while they freeze in the dark during the riots? I don’t know, either.

Understand this is a very cold, almost Shermanesque, strategy, it will cause civilian casualties in the thousands, probably dozens of thousands, maybe more. It also strikes me as the best way to take away the government’s advantage in mobility and communications, giving the partisans the chance to operate inside the governments OODA loop, even without central control. It’s sort of based on what the airborne did in Normandy on D-Day, sometimes referred to as little groups of paratroopers (LGP) who tied down all the German forces in the province.

Be advised I’m not advising this strategy or even that resistance should be undertaken, it will be very ugly and leave scars on our country worse than the civil war. I would pretty much discount foreign intervention, I don’t see that much liking for our government anywhere, and in any case, it would be difficult to get enough troops here and landed and supported. The Canadians are most likely to simply close the border, and the Mexicans not much else except maybe the drug cartels, but the ROE will be much different, especially for the partisans.

I’m going to give you a short quote from Bob Owen’s and then we’ll open the floor for discussion. Here’s Bob


Most of the downtown shops, in fact, weren’t doing much business except the two gun stores. I’d been in one several days ago to pick a .22LR for an article I’d be writing forShooting Illustrated, and decided to stop in at the other to see what the current political environment had left behind.

There were no less than six clerks working feverishly with the dozen or so customers, so I simply stepped to the side and walked the aisles. The cases of ammunition that typically lined the far wall were picked to pieces. There was a 100-round case of .50 BMG, and cases of European shotshells suitable for small game. The .223 Remington, 5.56 NATO, 7.62×39, 7.62 NATO, and 7.62x54R had sold out long ago, along with the bulk 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP.

A few pump shotguns remained along with a smattering of deer rifles, single-shots, and longer double-barreled shotguns suitable only for trap or skeet. Even the semi-automatic .22LR rifles like Ruger 10/22s were gone, along with all but one BX-25 magazine.

The customers in the shop were picking through what remained; lever-action rifles, oddball shotguns, and the smattering of name-brand centerfire pistols. One man was attempting to trade in an antique double-barrel shotgun for something more current.

I did speak to one harried clerk, briefly.

They didn’t know when they’d be getting anything back in stock, from magazines to rifles to pistols. Manufacturers were running full-bore, but couldn’t come close to keeping up with market demand.It wasn’t just the AR-15s, the AK-pattern rifles, the M1As, and the FALs that were sold out. It really hit me when I realized that the World War-era M1 Garands , M1 carbines, and Enfield .303s were gone, along with every last shell. Ubiquitous Mosin-Nagants—of which every gun store always seems to have 10-20—were gone. So was their ammo. Only a dust free space marked their passing. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Every weapon of military utility designed within the past 100+ years was gone. This isn’t a society stocking up on certain guns because they fear they may be banned. This is a society preparing for war.

Continue reading Something funny happened on the way to tyranny.

Keep your head up and your butt down, my friends.

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Categories: American Values, Conservatism, Decline of America, Freedom, Freedom of Speech, Guns, Politics

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6 replies

  1. While I very much do think that firearms confiscation is going to be the flashpoint for whatever violence is coming our way, I would not count on the military crossing lines. They haven’t so far during Sandy when they were sent to NYC/NJ for photo ops rather than to help clean up. The jobs, literally, were given to contractors, and this did tick off the guys who were more than willing to help, but had to follow orders and go home. One would hope that there are commanders unwilling to give immoral orders. Just sayin’.

    Mercenaries, OTOH…just hope our tax dollars aren’t used to hire them. That would be a nightmare.

    • Yes, I agree, it will depend greatly on company and field grade officers. I also suspect it will very from area to area, and that’s why I consider infrastructure so important.

  2. I agree that a total banning of private ownership of any and all firearms is the ultimate goal of the current administration, and the left in general. I should qualify that by stating that in my mind the left is a socialist movement, a communist movement if you will. I also think it will not be a straight out ban/confiscate move. I think it will be a gradual thing. First ban this, then that, then over regulate ammunition and the remaining firearms, etc.

    I also do not think that the regular army will be used to confiscate any firearms. I think the city police, state police and sheriff’s office’s will be used. If there is an armed insurrection (and I sincerely hope it never comes to that), I believe the regular army cannot be used to put it down. However, if I am not mistaken the national guard can be used (remember Kent State).

    Since I am on the subject, I will also say that I am getting pretty tired of reading social media posts about how the writer will never surrender his or her gun, will be more than willing to take up arms to defend their 2nd Amend rights, and so on and so forth. All the cliche posters and photos serve no one. As I said, I sincerely hope this whole situation never comes to such a flashpoint as you mention, but it is always a possibility. Anything is a possibility. But all this saber rattling on the social media sites only accomplishes one thing, and that is to provide the government with a list of names and information about those individuals that those individuals probably don’t want the government to have. Common sense will tell you that these social sites are monitored, as well as sites like ConClub, as they are a prime source for intel on groups and individuals that Dept of HS considers to be potential domestic terrorists. These posters who so willingly post on these social media sites have apparently never heard of operational security. Have you ever noticed that only rarely are those who post these things current or former military or law enforcement? That’s because they know better. They understand operational security.

    Personally, if there ever arises a situation as you mention above, I will not participate in any organized insurrection, nor will I encourage it. In fact, I discourage any such action, as it is nothing more than treasonous and suicidal. It will serve no useful purpose and can only result in needless tragedy.

    • All valid points, Thom. That in fact is my point, that one needs to think very carefully before initiating such an action, and it’s also why my scenarios are vague.

      Under the law the regular military cannot be used, that’s what the Posse Commitatus act is all about but I haven’t seen all that much respect for rule of law recently, Guard under state control can be used. In this mess, the reliability of either becomes a question, I don’t know how serious.

      Treasonous and suicidal? Perhaps. So were the Barons at Runnymede, and so were the founders. That’s what has always advanced freedom’s cause. I don’t advocate this action while we have other recourse, but I have learned to never say never.

  3. Howdy exceptional blog! Does running a blog like this require a great deal of work?
    I’ve absolutely no expertise in computer programming but I had been hoping
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    • On a WordPress/Blogger type platform technically it’s pretty easy technically. You need to have a fair amount of time, and something to say, and be able to write it reasonably well. It eats time in chunks like I never realized though. Good luck! :-)

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